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Note that I did not say "post-Y2K vigilance." The period of vulnerability to the Y2K bug and other Y2K related glitches BEGAN on 01-01-00, it did not end. Rather than a big bang at 12:05 AM on New Years Day, the real Y2K bug will be like a low grade flu that will cause headaches and chills over the next several months. Now is NOT the time to lower our vigilance.
Table of Contents
HEAT
You should have an alternate method of heating at least one room in
your house that does not depend on electricity. This is prudent advice
in most parts of North America, Y2K or NOT. Y2K is just an excuse
to complete sensible home improvements
that have been put off for a "rainy day." These improvements will
pay for themselves with lower heating costs in the long run.
TRANSPORTATION
You should keep your gas tank at least half full- in other words, don't
wait till it is on 1/4 tank to go to the gas station. You should
have charged cell phones in each of your vehicles, but should not talk
on them while driving unless you have a "hands free" adapter kit.
When traveling by air or rail, you should remain flexible and expect there
to be cancellations and delays due to the weather or other factors which
may or may not be related to computer errors.
FINANCIAL
You should remain vigilant and prepared for outages and inconveniences.
You should not modify your overall savings and investment strategy.
Pay special attention to your printed bank statements, utility bills, and
credit card bills. Invalid charges on credit cards are normally high
at this time of year, but especially after Y2K, credit card theft and identity
theft for the purpose of obtaining credit will likely reach record levels.
SUMMARY
Basically, you should be doing what you would normally do, Y2K or NOT!
Y2K just gave some people a socially acceptable excuse to stop putting
off home improvements or to take other steps that reduce their absolute
dependency on computers or other societal "bottlenecks" like the electric
power grid. All of these steps are prudent any time, especially in
winter.
Snow On The Manger?
CNN:
Rare Snowstorm Paralyzes Mideast
Snow Cancels Flights to Atlanta for Super Bowl
CNN
Coverage- Atlanta Super Bowl Travel Snafus
Georgia and the Carolinas had a heck of a year for weather. All summer long it seemed like hurricanes were battering the coast, and now a series of "white hurricanes" aka "Nor-easters" formed off the coast with low pressure rivaling hurricane levels. The same parts of North Carolina that were flooded by Dennis and Floyd have now been cut off by over 20 inches of snowfall! Global warming and La Nina notwithstanding, on a microclimatologic level, some areas can experience colder and snowier conditions than normal. Global climactic change is leading to greater extremes of severe weather rather than an overall warming effect. Click here for My Weather Links Page: soon to be added- a section on tornados and winter cyclones.
DC Digs Out
The day after the biggest snowfall since the infamous "Blizzard of
1996," Washington DC digs out. Anne Arundel County in Maryland received
18 inches of snow. Full coverage from the Washington
Post online.
How
the National Weather Service Fumbled the Forecast
Monday January 24, 2000 was the first day the new supercomputer modeling
system went online at the NWS in Bowie Maryland. At 3:30 PM it issued
this forecast: "Chance of light snow, accumulation less than one inch."
Federal
Workers Angry at OMB for Not Announcing Closure Sooner
By the time the US Federal Government in Washington DC announced they
would be closed, most government workers were already on the road driving
into a worsening storm.
Snow
Leads to Internet Traffic Jam
Workers who stayed home logged in from their PCs and found another
traffic jam online. Local communications networks and ISPs could
not keep up with the volume of calls on overloaded circuits.
CNN Weather: New Storm In Midwest As East Recovers From Blizzard
Space Weather: Geomagnetic Storm Imminent Within Next 48 Hours
Coronal Hole on Sun's Equator
Nearly Aligned With Earth
A coronal hole appeared in the equatorial region of the sun over the
weekend. When the sun's rotation brings it from the limb of the sun's
disk to alignment with earth, a stream of high energy particles is expected
to bombard the earth causing geomagnetic storms, increased auroral activity,
and disrupting communications. There is a 40
percent chance of active to minor storm levels at mid northern
latitudes within the next 24 hours.
Check out this picture
of the Sun from the SOHO spacecraft.
Remember to check the Space
Weather web page daily.
Sneaky Snow Confounds Computer Models
The "Blizzard of 2000" came out of nowhere to confound experts and
leave commuters stranded along the entire Atlantic seaboard. This
comes just days after another coastal
ice storm closed roads from Georgia to Virginia and New England,
and left almost half a million people without power. It's such a
surprise, the CNN Weather
page doesn't even have the story as of 7:00 AM EST. The Today Show
is talking about it right now. Outside my window the snow is coming
down at a rate of two inches per hour, expected to last for at least five
more hours at this pace. Lucky for us, our "Y2K
Stash" is fully stocked with over 60 cans of soup, a dozen cans
of condensed milk, and other essential supplies.
Caught By Surprise
At evening rush hour Monday in Washington DC, even the AM
talk radio was talking about a possible storm on Wednesday that
might bring flurries to a few inches. There was no talk of rushing
to the supermarket to buy milk. By the 11:00 PM News Monday night,
meteorologist Bob Ryan
was calling for a foot of snow or more. By 6 AM, all school districts
in eastern Virginia and Maryland had canceled school. Airports from
Washington DC to Boston are closed. Over a foot of snow is forecast
for Philadelphia, New York, and other cities. At 8 AM, I was at the
Giant supermarket buying groceries- the shelves were stocked full of milk,
bread, and other supplies because nobody had advance warning. Most
people I talked to said they woke up this morning and were surprised that
things were canceled. AMTRAK
has suspended all service south of DC. Here are some additional links
to transportation delay information for the DC, MD, VA area.
Snow Raises Doubts About
Veracity of Corporate News Source
There is another "blessing in disguise" about the so-called "Blizzard
of 2000." At 8:00 AM this morning, as mentioned above, with over
a foot of snow on the ground in some parts of the east coast, CNN did not
even have an updated news story about the snow. But they had this
article about the Cuban grandmothers, written as if it were "fact."
It says that Elian Gonzalez' grandmothers are on Capitol Hill right NOW
"lobbying" for his return to Cuba.
But in fact, Washington DC is a ghost town right now. The federal
government and the Congress are currently CLOSED.
The article was written yesterday and is posted on CNN right now as
if it were really happening. The grandmothers are snowbound like
everyone else. There is no "lobbying" going on on Capitol Hill at
this moment.
But then you wonder- what is the agenda of the people who are posting
these stories? They write news copy in advance as if it
were happening so they can get it to the web page when it presumably
happens, but what if it doesn't? If it is true with the Cuban
grandmothers, might it also not be true for other stories being reported
as "news" right now on CNN,
the AOL-Time-Warner corporate owned news megaglomerate?
It reminds me of the time Dan Rather went on the CBS satellite feed to read a report that the president was dead- it was a dress rehearsal for how the network would handle such a crisis, but for some users who had satellite dishes tuned to that channel, they thought it was the real deal. "What's the frequency Dan?"
First Significant Snowfall of
Season in much of USA
Mother Nature wanted to make a beautiful scene. For most of the
continental United States, the midwinter moon would rise over new fallen
snow. From the upper midwest to the east coast, the first
significant snowfall of the season left a blanket of white to reflect
the midwinter moonlight. Skies cleared up in Virginia just in time
to see the moon rise. Snow crystals in the atmosphere blown by high
winds caused a "moon pillar" to shine above the rising moon, sort of like
a vertical halo.
Lunar Eclipse
On Thursday night, in spite of below zero windchills and blowing snow
stinging my eyes, I was out in my backyard videotaping the total
lunar eclipse. This was a bright orange eclipse, the brightest
I have ever seen. It looked very similar to the photo on my web
page, which I borrowed from Sky
& Telescope's article describing the eclipse.
Y2K News
Y2K
Glitch in Lotus Notes
Dutch Bank Customers
find Y2K Glitch in Home Banking Software
Credit Cards May Get
Double Billed if Merchant Did Not Apply Y2K Patch
Aha! That is similar to what happened to me in November 1999
but I have no way of proving that it was really Y2K related. The
point is that all consumers must be especially vigilant when checking their
credit card statements.
Space Weather
Update
The solar wind velocity is gradually declining. Forecasters now
estimate that the chances of storm-level geomagnetic activity is less than
5% at high latitudes. On the Sun, activity is picking up. Sunspot group
#8824 has developed a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic field. Major flare
activity is likely. 8824 produced one M-class flare this morning, and has
unleased numerous C-class flares in the past 24 hours. [more
information]
Breaking News- Solar Flare ALERT!
The current Space Environment Forecast indicates that as of 12 Jan 2000 the earth is encountering a high energy particle stream that is causing brighter than average auroral displays in Alaska and Canada. The possibility exists for the aurora borealis to be seen in mid-northern latitudes TONIGHT!!
The eleven year sunspot cycle is near its maximum; this is referred
to as "Solar
Max."
The Space Weather
page has some neat stuff from the SOHO spacecraft.
World News
World
News Roundup from DisasterRelief.Org
More mudslides predicted in South America
Earthquake shuts down Japanese Nuclear Reactor
Other Recent News
Air traffic delays on January
6, 2000 caused by glitch in FAA mainframe that processes flight
plans.
The biggest business story of the week was the merger of AOL
and Time Warner announced on January 10, 2000.
That story has huge ramifications here in the Washington
DC area that are outside the scope of this "Y2K" page. I
mention it because it had an effect on the stock market which had the most
volatile trading week in history on most world markets.
A Russian hacker released 300,000 credit card numbers that were stolen from the web-biz "CD Universe" when they failed to pay ransom.
Revisions to Predictions
While I sometimes take credit for making some predictions, I
should also admit where my predictions did not hit the mark.
Here is the list I wrote in July 1999 describing "What
May Happen" during the first months of Y2K.
Banks did not run out of cash. Overall, hoarding and shortages did not occur. Some pharmacies may run out of some medical supplies because of excessive demand resulting from the flu epidemic in the US and UK.
Labor troubles occur continuously and during the first two weeks of 2000 the activity was centered more in Europe. Truck drivers in France staged roadblocks to get attention for their labor demands. In the US, some flight attendants staged a "sick out" which resulted in over 300 cancellations. [I am still looking for a web reference for that story- if you have one, please email me.]
Weird Weather
My severe weather section listed everything except tornados.
That was an oversight. The non-existant
winter in the eastern USA is a weather story in itself. Boston
has broken records for the longest number of consecutive days without snow
and the latest measurable snowfall (yet to happen) of any winter season.
It's very unusual, although not very dramatic. La
Nina may lead to drought conditions again next summer.
The Pentagon admits that a network of sky satellites went offline at
00 GMT 01-01-00 (7 PM EST New Years Eve).
CNN
I agree with the comments of Canada's "Y2K Prophet" Peter de Jager word for word: Have you received your tax forms yet? Have you received your first pay stub of the new year yet? Your electric bill? VISA bill? From: Yahoo News
Quote: ``None of these business processes have occurred yet. So, for anyone to suggest we're through Y2K is making the assumption that none of these business processes are going to be affected. That's an extremely naive assumption,'' de Jager told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.Yahoo Y2K News Coverage
Stock Market
All eyes on the stock market today after Asian markets followed the
US lead and had sell-offs of their own.
CNNFn
Mysterious Accidents
Train
crash in Norway
Explosion
in Sri Lanka
An organization called Second Harvest is organizing a millennium food
drive starting January 15, 2000.
The idea is to get people to donate their stockpiled Y2K rations to
food banks around the USA.
Here are some links...
Y Go 2 Waste?
Press
release- the food drive starts 1/15/2000...
A list
of local food banks by state...
The Y2K glitch reports are starting to trickle in: CNN
ATF, Amtrak, and a variety of federal facilities are reporting Y2K glitches. This is only day two of the period of vulnerability to the Y2K bug. Yesterday, 90 percent of the PCs in the world were turned back on, but people have not really started running all their programs or performing all the administrative processes and workflow that they will perform as part of their jobs. So it is way too soon to declare victory. The next days and weeks will see many examples of glitches, snafus, and outages, although most of them will not be severe or life threatening. Rather than a big explosion at 12:05 AM 01-01-00, the Y2K bug is going to be like a lingering flu virus, causing headaches and chills continuously for the next several months.
Here is a list of Y2K Monitoring Sites from around the world.
Stock Market Volatility
I hate to be the one to say "I told you so," but I told you so... What
May Happen
The first two trading days of the year 2000 have been the most volatile in stock market history. Today the Nasdaq experienced its largest single daily point loss in history. This should not be too alarming coming on the heels of a record 86 percent gain by the Nasdaq market in the past year. The pre-Y2K euphoria of Dow >11.5K and NAS > 4K was an inevitable response to people stashing the cash to get it on the books in tax year 1999. Nobody really expected the bubble to correct itself so quickly though. True it is the largest daily point loss on the Dow since 1998, but it just brings the level back to where is was a few weeks ago- hardly a catastrophe. But investor psychology is a tricky thing to predict- some investors may be spooked and jump on the selling bandwagon again tomorrow. Can you say "Buying opportunity?"
Weird Weather
Winter tornados
struck three states last night. Kentucky
was the hardest hit. Maybe people will donate some of the stockpiled
Y2K rations to the people displaced by the storms. It was 70 degrees
for the third day in a row in Washington DC- in January!
Here is a summary of the severe
weather news stories of 1999.
Here is a list of the most severe Tornados
of the 20th century.
Here is a list of the most notable weather
stories of the century.
The Weather Channel's viewer poll of the worst "Storms
of the Century."
The catch phrase for this week should be "it's way too soon to tell."
We have only been through two business days in the new millennium.
The average consumer has yet to receive their Christmas credit card bills,
their W-2 forms for 1999 taxes, or their first telephone and utility bills
of the new millennium. Wait and see.
If I told you a way to keep fresh milk stored without refrigeration, irradiation, and without that plastic after-taste that often comes from carton milk (Parmelat in particular) or soy milk, would you be interested?
The answer: evaporated milk in a can!
Carnation evaporated milk was on sale at the Safeway last week so I bought a few cans. Then I read the label- you can reconstitute it as whole milk by adding equal parts of water. Over the weekend I experimented with it- mixing a half gallon and refrigerating it. Then I mixed it in with my daughter's baby bottle, and she never complained that she could tell the difference. This beats powdered milk or baby formula any day!
Canned evaporated milk meets all my Y2K criteria: convenience, long shelf life, no refrigeration, easily reconstituted, no cooking! If you keep a half gallon of spring water and two cans of milk per person per day- you have a gallon of milk each per day. And it is cost effective- a can is 89 cents but generates a quart of milk- how much does a quart of fresh milk cost?
Suppose we make it through the winter without the milk supply ever running low. My grandfather used evaporated milk as coffee creamer when I was a child. That's how I acquired my taste for coffee- every morning Walter J would perk a fresh pot of A&P "Eight O'Clock" coffee in one of those old fashioned percolators.
It can also be used in recipes as a substitute for light cream.
(A) It could mean that some people will be denied
credit unfairly base on incorrect entries in their credit files, based
on someone else's credit card number, social security information, or other
incorrectly linked identifier.
(B) It could also mean the consequences of identity
theft, because the rate of unauthorized use of stolen credit card numbers
is already skyrocketing, as reported in the press recently. Military
members were recently targeted because their name, rank, and social security
numbers are a matter of public record.
(C) BUT the really big problem with credit reporting will be... you will go into a store to charge something, the network will be really slow, people will be getting antsy in line behind you, and then the clerk will come back and tell you that your credit card has not been accepted!?! WHY NOT?!? Will you freak out and yell at the clerk, causing a scene, and storm out of the store?? Or will you say "Aha! Chris told me that something like this might happen! Not to worry- here is another credit card. Or better yet, let me pay cash, since I withdrew extra $$ from the ATM. "
Both of these things happened to me in November 1999, so the chances that they may happen to you in January-March 2000 are fairly high, Y2K or NOT:
(1) The number of credit 'authorizations' to your
credit card exceed your credit limit.
(2) Error in processing your credit card payment,
resulting in a computer-initiated lowering of your credit limit.
Did you know this? .. Even if you don't purchase something, merchants post 'credit authorizations' to your credit card account, and the actual credit card transaction is not processed until the paperwork is received by the bank. The authorization has the effect of lowering your amount of available credit. If you buy something and return it the next day- the store may offer to credit your credit card, but your available credit will be lower for up to a week until the credit card receipts clear the system.
From late December 1999 until March 2000, the TIME required to process the paperwork behind the credit card transactions will GROW EXPONENTIALLY because of the extra time spent by banks, VISA, Mastercard, and other credit agencies to investigate the high number of fraudulent credit card charges. So in effect... your credit limit will be LOWER than you think it is, for days or even weeks longer than it should be. Of course, this only matters if you are CLOSE to your credit LIMIT, but...
What also happened to me ( I have since reversed it) was that the credit LIMIT on one of my credit cards was involuntarily lowered because the credit card company thought I had missed the payment- they slapped a whopping late fee on my account, bumped my interest rate up to the maximum allowable rate (from a promotional 6.9 percent to the standard 19.8 percent) and then LOWERED my credit limit to the exact amount of my outstanding balance, effectively freezing the use of the card!
This really already happened. Of course I was on the phone within hours- on the 800# customer service hotline- and I got all my late fees refunded and the correct interest rate restored on the accounts. There is much MORE to the story- but I will save that for another email! In a nutshell- it happened because I tried to pay my bill ONLINE from the credit card's web site- and THEY lost the payment. Now extrapolate from that... more people are shopping ONLINE this Christmas than ever before.... and you can see how the numbers of INCORRECT charges, as well as deliberately fraudulent charges, are going to SKYROCKET!
Chris Mastrangelo
Washington DC USA
"Inside the Beltway"
Y2K or NOT, if the internet comes under cyber attack by Y2K viruses, terrorist hackers, or for any reason, do you want to still receive updates like the one above??
Send me your FAX number via email to my home address.
Analysis of the Y2K
Threat
Strategies
of Containment
Other Sites
The Millennium
Matters
Today's
Space Weather
Insurgency
on the Internet (CNN)
Boston.com
Year 2000 page
Yahoo
Y2K News Coverage
The Weather Channel
DisasterRelief.Org