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Y2K and the Millennium
By some accounts, Y2K is 'secular doomsday'
when computer systems are supposed to fail with disastrous consequences.
These "gloom and doom" prophecies are really a continuation of the millennial
tradition in the old world religions, but taken out of its religious context.
Whether by supernatural means, or technological means, it's potentially
the "end of the world as we know it," but it won't be the
end of the world. In a sense, the world is destroyed and created
anew every day- the only thing that stays the same is change. The
fact is, any one of the institutions that we take for granted could fail
tomorrow, Y2K or NOT. The banking system, the transportation
system, our communications systems... all are built partially on FAITH
that the 'invisible hand' of Adam Smith will always act in our mutual best
interest. But what if it does NOT?
Even without an outright failure in any one sector, the rate of errors, and the lack of trained personnel, is leading to a deterioration of the so-called "service economy." The lack of skilled technical workers have forced companies to hire and train many people lacking the qualifications to be successful in our high tech economy. The marketing divisions of companies in all sectors make claims that their technical divisions are unable to implement. The frequency of errors on utility bills, telephone bills, credit card bills, and bank statements, is already so high that a responsible citizen must check all their statements in great detail rather than take it for granted that the computer generated bills are correct. The increasingly "virtual" nature of electronic banking and business transactions are making the opportunities for fraud increase exponentially. This situation appears to be reaching "critical mass" in the near future, synchronistically coinciding with the "millennium."
The term "Y2K" has taken on meaning that is more than a computer glitch, and more than a particular date in the Gregorian calendar. Many people have projected their hopes and fears onto Y2K, expecting Armageddon, followed by the second coming of Jesus Christ, or the first coming of the Jewish Messiah- the end of days and a new beginning. From a technological point of view, Y2K may actually result in better reliability of computer systems and networks worldwide after January 2000- it is the first time in history that a cross-platform integration test has been performed without being tied to a particular project budget or to satisfy a client's business requirement [other than the general requirement that systems should function and be error free]. From a social and anthropological point of view, however, the Y2K phenomenon will be a fascinating study in Social Darwinism. Times of war or disaster, natural or man made, real or imagined, tend to bring out the best and the worst in people, and we should expect to see no less in the days and weeks around New Years 2000.
What May Happen
All of these things may happen in the next year...
Synchronicity
Actually, most of the events listed HAVE
occurred in the past six months. As long as only one problem
happens at a time, we are protected by the laws of randomness. The
difference with Y2K is that we have a DEADLINE. Suppose in the first
few months of the year 2000, several of these events occur simultaneously!
Could there be a "ripple effect" leading to a cascading system failure?!?
Other notorious disasters this century have occurred as a result of a conjunction
of bad events called "synchronicity"-
if any one event had not occurred, disaster might have been avoided.
The "gloom and doom" advocates want you to believe that Y2K is "Judgment Day" when we collectively experience "synchronicity" at its worst. When we look at this time period in retrospect a few years from now, the "real" version will turn out to be a synthesis of the good and the bad, and the final story will play itself out in a way that few people predicted.
UPDATE NOVEMBER 1999-
as of 11/11/99:
The list above was written in September 1999
when every item listed had occurred at least once in the period from July
16, 1999 (The JFK
Jr. plane crash) to September 15, 1999 (Hurricane
Floyd). In the six weeks since, we have experienced more random
acts of workplace violence, many of them unsolved. More earthquakes
and floods worldwide- I estimate that an average of 200,000 people have
been displaced by earthquakes or severe weather EVERY WEEK in the second
half of this year. If that rate keeps up, there could be as many
as 20 million people displaced by environmental catastrophes. Even
if that occurs, since the world population officially reached 6 BILLION
people last month, that would still mean that less than one third of one
percent of the world's population are affected. Surely the 99.66 percent
of us more fortunate living on planet earth can help those less fortunate
than ourselves! It all depends on how you look at it- the numbers
can seem daunting from one perspective, or insignificant from another.
But if you were one of the millions of people recently made homeless by
the super-cyclone that hit India last week, the crazy weather would not
seem insignificant to YOU!
Open Season for Cyber-Terrorists
It is very likely that two or three of the predicted
events will happen simultaneously- but more likely the result of hackers
or cyber-terrorists than from the Y2K "bug" itself. Hackers,
terrorists, and "pranksters" will consider January 2000 to be "open season"
for launching their attacks, because they will assume the chances of getting
caught will be less. The internet is a particularly fertile ground
for fraudulent activity, because of the 'virtual' environment, and the
large number of 'newbies' who are unfamiliar with various scams.
If P.T. Barnum were alive today, he would have a field day on the internet!
Some recent examples:
Spam the Scammers (or
is it Scam the Spammers?)
Scam artists who specialize in stealing cell
phone numbers or credit card numbers will also be having their heyday in
December 1999 through April 2000. The high tech equivalent of the
pickpockets working the crowd in Times Square on Millennium
Eve, there is always a criminal element waiting to cash in on the latest
fad or hype. These scam merchants will be even more brazen around
the time of the millennium, because they know that fraudulent charges made
in December 1999 will not show up on credit card bills until January 2000
buried among holiday purchases. I expect the rate of fraudulent credit
card transactions to more than double- perhaps to increase by a factor
of TEN! But that story won't be reported in the media until well
into February 2000, after people have received their credit card bills
from December and start to look through them carefully.
Domino Theory
As the world economy becomes more complex and
interdependent, we may be approaching a point of "self organized criticality"
when a failure in one system leads to problems in other areas. It's
as if we keep adding dominos to a table top... at first the dominos are
far enough apart that when one falls, the others are not affected... but
eventually we reach a point where any domino falling will start a
chain reaction that will knock down all the other dominos. The Y2K
glitches, which by themselves may be relatively minor, could be the 'first
domino' that starts the chain reaction. These possibilities are all
real, although statistically unlikely.
If the power grid goes off-line in January 2000, it may not be possible to tell if that was caused by an ice storm, Y2K, or solar flares causing geomagnetic storms that change the electron flux in the ionosphere. Any one of those three events are a possibility- if two or three occur simultaneously, then it is virtually guaranteed that the power will be out for some number of days. If power is out, computer networks are off-line and so are banks. That is one way that a localized problem could result in a "domino effect."
You should consider having an alternate plan to heat at least one of the rooms in your house if you are without electric power for more than 24 hours. Even with a gas heater, with no electricity to operate the thermostat and fan, you may have to move your family into a hotel or shelter if the power does not come back on in a reasonable time. Please refer to the "Strategies of Containment" page for some ideas and suggestions. Even if you are reading this in November 1999, it is not too late.
Needles in the Haystack
Another potential 'first domino' that knocks
the others down is the "needle in a haystack" problem. By
this I mean- suppose only one percent of the servers on your network (either
the internet or a private LAN) have Y2K problems. Then potentially
one percent of all "transactions" that pass across the network could have
an error in them. But the problem is- you don't know which ones are
the bad ones. So even though 99 percent of the traffic on the network
is error FREE, you have to assume 100 percent of messages are in error
until you find the one percent that are really bad. Finding the one
percent is a "needle in a haystack" problem that takes TIME to solve.
It could take days or weeks for a corporation to certify that their servers
are clear of errors.
What many people don't realize is that many of these "needles" will be hard to spot, and may not really be noticed until well after January 2000 has come and gone. That's why it is especially important to keep copies of all your bank statements, credit card statements, and utility bills up to date. Unauthorized charges on credit cards will skyrocket in January-March 2000.
Weak Links in the Supply
Chain
Manufacturing has adopted a "Just In Time" approach
to supply chain management, keeping inventories of spare parts low
to keep costs lower. But while that improves short term bottom line
profitability, it also increases the likelihood that shortages and back
orders can occur. Corporations today measure their supply of spare
parts in DAYS instead of weeks or months as in the past, so it only
takes a few days of problems for a supplier to bring the whole assembly
line to a halt. The theory is that if one supplier goes belly up,
there are other suppliers out there ready to compete and fill the orders.
As long as the economy and the markets are functioning optimally, this
theory should hold- but what if the markets experience "degraded conditions"
caused by Y2K or by some other combination of natural or man-made disasters?
Most modern "supply chain management" is handled over the internet via
"electronic commerce (EC)" for which the vulnerability to Y2K glitches
is obvious. Even worse than Y2K may be the threat of cyber-terrorism
aka "industrial sabotage." Other vulnerabilities include labor strikes
and severe weather shutting down transportation or the availability of
raw materials.
Recent examples include:
Another scenario of "What May Happen"...
The "Y2K Hype"
The media will participate in actively in fanning
the flames of mass hysteria as people begin to act in their own self-preservation
as the imagined threat of Y2K approaches. Here is one possible scenario:
In early December 1999, the media will begin reporting stories of people hoarding goods. The reports will lead to more people hoarding to avoid being left behind- a self-fulfilling prophecy.
When we go back to work on January 3, 2000 with no major glitches, the media will start reporting that the Y2K crisis was all a hoax, a practical joke by geeks and nerds. Commentators and "talking heads" will have a good chuckle for a few days.
Then people will start to throw post-Y2K parties to consume all the extra goods they purchased. All those extra cheese and crackers will come in handy at SuperBowl parties around the country.
When the reserve supplies are depleted, a series of major winter storms will hit the US, shutting down roads and airports. The country will be brought to a standstill, and supermarket shelves will empty again.
On February 29, 2000 the "mini-Y2K" problem will hit causing more disruptions than predicted. The first week of March 2000 will see the most severe winter storm on record, surpassing the "Storm of the Century" in 1993.
All these things happened during the last two weeks of September 1999:
9/15/99 All Networks: When Hurricane Floyd caused the evacuation of Jacksonville FL, all commuter and freight train traffic on CSX rails were shut down as far north as Baltimore and Philadelphia, because the CSX Control Center was evacuated. This is an example of a BOTTLENECK- the entire east coast rail system depends on ONE control center. Read more about CSX business including their subsidiaries that specialize in "Just In Time" delivery.
9/21/99 CNN Business: After the earthquake in Taiwan, power was out to most of the country for several days. Even though the silicon chip manufacturing plants in the country were not damaged by the quake, lack of power slowed production for only a few days. But the possibility of shortages caused a panic in the semiconductor market worldwide. Hoarding took place, and people started buying up existing supplies, causing the price of memory chips to increase by 400 percent. The assembly and delivery of new personal computers depends on the availability of memory chips and CPUs. The fact that memory chips are only manufactured in one place is another example of a BOTTLENECK. I saw this story late at night on CNN while flipping channels, but have not been able to find the article on their web site.
9/24/99 Washington Post: Metrorail service into Washington DC was delayed for several hours during morning rush hour due to a computer crash in the control center. This is an example of both a BOTTLENECK and a WEAK LINK! Only one computer controls the train scheduling operation for the entire Washington DC Metrorail system- that's a BOTTLENECK! The system depends on remote sensing devices with embedded systems that are potential weak links. The crisis was averted before 6 A.M. because a smart manager dispatched LIVE PEOPLE to act as the eyes and ears of the system. A recent crash between an Amtrak train and a CSX train in Maryland may also have been the result of a glitch in the control system.
9/28/99 Today Show: A couple received a gas bill for over $50 billion - they had their gas bill set up on automatic payment to be deducted from their checking account (never do that unless you have a budget plan with a FIXED amount every month). This is an example of WEAK LINKS: there are too many steps that are computerized, any one of which can have an error. The gas meter is probably read by telemetry- the gas man doesn't usually enter your property any more, for fear of stray dogs or other liability issues, so they read the meter electronically from a distance. Then the data from the gas technician's palm computer has to be uploaded to the gas company's billing system, probably by wireless modem. The gas company billing system has to correctly record the charges. Then an automatic debit request is transmitted from the gas company to the bank. At the bank, the automatic debit has to be processed. AT ANY STEP the possibility of data entry or transmission errors is introduced.
Other Sites
The
Millennium Matters
Today's
Space Weather
Insurgency
on the Internet (CNN)