Sensible Y2K Preparation: Part II

Strategies of Containment

  • Pharaoh's Dream
  • Soup is Cheap Insurance
  • Food Storage Strategies
  • The GRID
  • What You Must Do NOW
  • Make the Grid Your Friend
  • Cell Phone Etiquette
  • Printable Version of this page

  • Pharaoh's Dream
    Remember the Old Testament story?  Pharaoh had a dream that "seven lean cows ate seven fat cows."  Joseph correctly interpreted the dream to mean that seven years of good harvests would be followed by seven years of famine.  So to survive, they stored HALF of the wheat harvest in each of the seven years of plenty, and then ate from their stock during the seven years of poor harvests.  This saved the lives of thousands, and made Joseph a famous and successful man in Egypt.

    In Y2K, this means to double your consumption NOW, and eat out of existing stocks after the 'crisis' is past.
    Even if there is no Y2K 'shock'- having extra food on hand during the winter is good advice.
    Suppose your local supermarket shuts down due to an ice storm in January 2000?!
    I am not saying that Y2K will be the equivalent of a snowstorm, I am saying that Y2K could hit at the same time as a snowstorm, and even if Y2K doesn't happen, planning for shortages or for lack of mobility is a good idea.

    After the winter* is over, continue to eat from existing stocks, but only replace HALF of what you consume.  And of course, you would not replace those items that turned out not to be popular with family members.  And we will all continue to purchase short term supplies of perishable items like milk and fruit, as long as they continue to be available.  The goal is to behave in a responsible manner, not just to "follow the herd."

    *Meteorological winter is defined as December 1 to March 1.  Your "Y2K Stash" must be complete by December 1st.  If you are reading this after October 1st, then doubling your consumption may not be enough- that recommendation was based on a start date in July.  Don't fall into the media's "Y2K Hype" trap that will make many people react involuntarily; and on January 3 2000 when "nothing happens" don't deplete your supply!  On February 29, 2000 the "Mini-Y2K" bug will hit, which will be more significant than the January 1 bug. The first week of March 2000 will probably be the worse week of the winter for severe weather.

    Soup is Cheap Insurance
    And it's also "good food."  Canned goods remain fresh longer and have a virtually unlimited shelf life.  Start planning now so you can buy things on sale rather than waiting until the supermarket shelves are sold out or prices rise.  But the important thing is *NOT* to change your lifestyle- there are plenty of good things you can eat that have a long shelf life and are healthy for you.
    Buy in bulk at Costco or BJs - doesn't every suburban family with two kids and two cars do this anyway?
    Initial Food List- buy about four weeks supply of the things you LIKE to eat the most. Stock up!
    Maintain Your Stock: From now through December 1999- for each item you consume, buy TWO to replace it.
    Contents: HIGH Protein, Low Sugar.  Also don't forget vitamins, soap, and essential toiletries.

    Food Storage Strategies
    If you wait until December 1999 to decide to buy massive quantities all at once, you will probably be too late, like the majority of people who will be reacting to the inaccurate Y2K hype likely to exist in the media at that time.  You should be preparing now, gradually, to increase your food storage capacity and supply.  Food prices may also be affected by the drought and flooding that occurred in much of the United States since July 1999.

    Long shelf life:  Buy what you like to eat, but focus on storing non-perishable items. Check the expiration date on everything you buy.  Create a checklist of the items you keep in stock.  Monitor your consumption by counting the containers that you throw away before putting them in the recycling bin.  Many consumables are stamped with their own expiration dates- always select the product with the date as far into the future as possible.  For canned good or items that are not dated, you may want to consider buying one of those label making machines, and putting a purchase date stamp on items the day you buy them.  Eat from the front of the stock, and resupply the back of the stock.

    Minimal preparation time:   If the power goes out on New Years Eve, how are you going to bake that bread?  It's also good to plan for alternative power sources, but let's face it- most people can neither afford the money nor the space for an electric generator or a new wood burning stove.  So the key is to store some amount of meals that are "ready to eat."

    Most "Y2K Kits" advertised on the "gloom and doom" Y2K sites fail on both counts. They recommend buying raw flour or other 'staples' that must be cooked  or processed in various ways, or that have special storage requirements.  That's great if you like to cook, and if you have fuel.  In an actual emergency situation, you want to be able to grab and go.

    It's true that freeze dried items have a longer shelf life than canned meats packed in water or oil.  But read the preparation instructions on pre-packaged meals to consider their utility in the long run.  A can of white meat chicken can be opened and eaten without cooking, or mixed with condiments or spices if your prefer.  Some of the powdered soup mixes take almost an hour to prepare.  With fuel for cooking scarce, do you want to keep the propane grill operating that long?


    The Grid

    By the "grid" in this context I mean the criss-crossing electric power, transportation, and topological features.  Each of these interlocking pieces represents a bottleneck that we are dependent on.  On a typical day on a typical interstate highway, hundreds of thousands of cars pass by the same point during rush hour- it is inevitable that on most days, at least one person driving recklessly gets in an accident that inconveniences every other traveler on that same road.  In the case of the power grid, each customer depends on the integrity of the entire system which consists of hundreds of miles of wires above and below ground.  A lightning strike on a transformer, or a tree limb falling on a power line, can put thousands of residences in the dark for hours or even days. Y2K or NOT, the deregulation of the electric power industry in the year 2000 is almost sure to result in confusion, disruption of service, and billing errors to some percentage of residential electric customers.

    What You Must Do NOW (updated November 15, 1999)
    Y2K or NOT, the winter of 1999-2000 will see severe weather, ice storms, and "thunder snow"  in much of North America that will knock out power for days or even weeks in isolated cases.  Add to that mix the possibility of Y2K glitches and geomagnetic storms caused by "Solar Max" and the chances are very good that almost everyone will see some kind of power outages in January 2000.  Almost everyone will lose power at least once this winter, and on any given day this winter, there will be many thousands of people without power somewhere.  After the winter weather, we will enter the spring tornado season, but what is even more likely to cause disruptions in service and billing errors is the deregulation of the electric power industry which is also coming soon to your location.  You MUST reduce your risk by eliminating your absolute dependence on the power grid before it is too late.  Anything you can do to moderate these risk factors and eliminate dependence on bottlenecks will be worthwhile even if the dreaded "Y2K Bug" never strikes.  In many parts of the US, these steps will be an investment that will pay for themselves.

    Ask yourself these questions:

  • What if there were no electricity for 24 hours? Would you be able to heat at least one room in your house?  Would you be able to cook?  Or would you have to move your family to a shelter or a motel?
  • What if you received no paycheck for one pay period?   If you missed one paycheck, and had to do without the income, do you have enough assets in cash or savings to be able to make it to the next pay period?  What if the back pay owed to you was not paid for another pay period, or perhaps two periods, because the accounting and finance office had a backlog of overdue payroll requests?  Would you have enough supplies on hand, as well as enough money in your checking account to make the minimum payment on all your utility bills?
  • After recording your answers to the above, take it one step further: Some recommendations for families living in areas that are not earthquake prone: The moderate improvements above will pay for themselves in the long term anyway, Y2K or NOT.  In the worst case, a little pre-planning could save you a lot of aggravation if we have another winter like 1997 on the east coast.
    Don't believe me?  Go to this page- http://www.yellowstoneinfo.com/letters-3.htm
    then do a character search (CTRL-F) for "gcmastra" for an example of what COULD (and DID) happen.



    Make the Grid your Friend
    The modern interstate highway system creates a man-made topological barrier similar to a river valley or mountain pass- it can only be crossed at designated points, and pedestrian traffic is not allowed.  The "beltway" around Washington DC is like a moat around a castle- you can only enter at various "gates" which are the overpasses or underpasses.  If  I-95 is closed by a "hazmat spill" it is just as formidable a barrier to cross as the Grand Canyon.  If you find yourself on the other side of this barrier from your home and family, you will have to determine a safe and direct route to cross the divide.

    To really understand this "grid" you will need two sets of maps- the highway maps from DeLorme or AAA, and topological maps from USGS or other resellers.  Online map sources can be used for research, but there is no substitute for a detailed map book stored under the seat of your car.

    Learn several alternate routes between your home and work.  For years my wife thought I was nuts when I would try to find other ways to get from point A to point B.  My "shortcuts" never turn out to be shorter, at least not most of the time.  But when there is an accident on the major roadways, I always know a way to get around it.  Here is a little game I play with myself while driving to/from work.  When driving on I-495 (which I try to avoid in general) I make a mental note of each overpass, and try to recall the names of the roads which are usually posted on a sign.  Then I locate the cross streets on the map, and on another subsequent trip, I try to make it a point to select a route that will allow me to drive on that overpass.  Awareness is one step- but Rehearsal is the key to this "game."  Knowing the names of the streets is important, but driving on that road is critical to know what you will encounter when you venture into new territory- one way streets, railroad crossings, road blocks, or other factors that determine whether this would really be a viable alternate route in an emergency.  By definition, a map is out of date the minute after it is printed- the real world changes while the map does not.  Also, maps are sometimes inaccurate...

    MAP
    Example provided by MapBlast, which I recommend for online research, but a printed map book stored under your car seat is still essential.

    For example, in Newington south of Springfield VA, there is a road (Fullerton Rd.)  that looks like it connects from I-95 to Rolling Road on the map, but when you take this road in real life, it takes you into an industrial park and there is a fence across the opening to Rolling Road.  I guess this was put there by residents who wanted to reduce the amount of "cut through" traffic or access to their neighborhood by 18-wheel tractor/trailers.  The trade off, however, is that residents of that part of southwest Springfield and Lorton can not get to Price Club without going the long way around.

    Cell Phone Etiquette
    Always keep a charged cell phone in your car (but don't talk on it while you are driving, unless it is an emergency).  When you see a disabled motorist on the side of the road, it may not be safe to stop and give assistance, but call it in to the local police.  Memorize the local non emergency phone numbers in your area, or program it into your phone's memory (in Fairfax county on Sprint Spectrum, "#77" is the state police non emergency number... they then connect you with the police department for the county you are in).

    But also keep in mind...  as James Earl Jones used to say... "nothing matters if... the call does not go through."  Solar flares may disrupt some RF band communications, or you may find yourself stranded in an area that is out of range of a cellular tower.  Some things are out of your control, but others are not.  Remember to always keep your cell phones charged, and always have one in each car.  The one time you forget to charge it, or leave it at home, that is when you will need it.


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    Y2K: Analysis of the Threat Resources Millennium 1999 A.D.
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